According to the interest rate parity theory, the currency margin is dependent mainly on the prevailing interest rate (for investment for the given time period) in the two currencies. The forward rate can be calculated by the following formula:
F/S = (1+Rh)/ (1+Rf)
Where, F and S are future and spot currency rate. Rh and Rf are simple interest rate in the home and foreign currency respectively.
Alternatively, if we consider continuously compounded interest rate then forward rate can be calculated by using the following formula:
F = S*e (rh- rf)*t
Where, rh and rf are the continuously compounded interest rate for the home currency and foreign currency respectively, T is the time to maturity and e = 2.71828 (exponential).
If the following relationship between the futures rate and the spot rate does not hold, then there will be an arbitrage opportunity in the market. This will force the futures rate to change so that the relationship holds true.
Let us assume that risk free interest rate for one year deposit in India is 7% and in USA it is 3%. You as smart trader/ investor will raise money from USA and deploy it in India and try to capture the arbitrage of 4%.…
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