Scenario of Exchange Rates in India

India is following the direct rate in Forex markets, i.e. foreign currency is fixed and home currency is varying. When we go to a shop and ask for the price of a product he tells us only one rate for the product, because the trader is only selling the product to consumers. He is not buying from consumers. Whatever rate the seller tells is implied as his selling price for the product. Even though the consumer is buying a product, what he pays to the trader is the selling price of the trader. Foreign Exchange market is different from this market in the sense that the authorized dealer buys as well as sells the foreign currency. Banks and financial institutes authorized by RBI to sell the foreign currency are called as Authorized Dealers. When you ask the rate of a foreign currency from an authorized dealer, he quotes two- wayContinue reading

Exchange Rate Determination Models

Determination of the exchange rate is as simple as the determination of price of any commodity or product or service. Only thing, here the commodity itself is one currency, so price of one currency in terms of another is required. But the caveat is determination of price of any commodity/product/service is not that simple. The determinants of the exchange rate are too many to consider. Yet certain macro variables would capture the same. Flow models and asset models are used in exchange rate determination. These are explained below: 1. Flow Model The flow model of exchange rate determination simply is based on demand and supply of Forex. Demand for foreign exchange takes place whenever a country imports goods and services, people of a country undertake visits to other countries, citizens of a country remit money abroad and whatever purpose, business units set up foreign subsidiaries and so on. In allContinue reading

Swaps Risk and Exposure

The great bulk of swap activity of date has concentrated on currencies and interest rates, yet these do not exhaust the swap concept’s applicability. As one moves out the yield curve, the primary interest rate swap market becomes dominated by securities transactions and in particular the Eurodollar bond market. The advent of the swap market has meant that the Eurodollar bond market now never closes due to interest rate levels: issuers who would not come to market because of high interest rates now do so to the extent that a swap is available. Indeed, the Eurodollar bond market owes much of its spectacular growth to the parallel growth of its swap market. The firms that now dominate lead management roles in the Eurodollar bond market all have substantial swap capabilities and this trend will continue. One extension is seen in the beginning of the market for equity swaps- an exchangeContinue reading

Interest Rate Parity (IRP) Theory of Exchange Rate

When Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) Theory applies to product markets, Interest Rate Parity (IRP) condition applies to financial markets. Interest Rate Parity (IRP) theory postulates that the forward rate differential in the exchange rate of two currencies would equal the interest rate differential between the two countries. Thus it holds that the forward premium or discount for one currency relative to another should be equal to the ratio of nominal interest rate on securities of equal risk (and duration) denominated in two currencies. For example, where the interest rate in India and US are respectively 10% and 6% and the dollar-rupees spot exchange rate is Rs.42.50/US $. The 90 day forward exchange rate would be calculated as per IRP as follows: = 42.50 (1+0.10/4)/(1+0.06/4) = Rs.42.9250 And hence, the forward rate differential [forward premium (p)] will be; (42.9250 — 42.50)/42.50 = 1% And the interest rate differential will be;Continue reading

International Fisher Effect

According to the Relative Version of Purchasing Power Parity Theory (PPP) one of the factors leading to change in exchange rate between currencies is inflation in the respective countries. As long as the inflation rate in the two countries remains equal, the exchange rate between the currencies would not be affected. When a difference or deviation arises in the inflation levels of the two countries, the exchange rate would be adjusted to reflect the inflation rate differential between the countries. The International Fisher Effect (IFE) theory is an important concept in the fields of economics and finance that links interest rates, inflation and exchange rates. Similar to the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) theory, IFE attributes changes in exchange rate to interest rate differentials, rather than inflation rate differentials among countries. Nominal interest rates would automatically reflect differences in inflation by a purchasing power parity or no-arbitrage system. The two theoriesContinue reading

Forward Foreign Exchange Contracts

Forward exchange is a device to protect traders against risk arising out of fluctuations in exchange rates. A trader, who has to make or receive payment in foreign currency at the end of a given period, may find at the time of payment or receipt that the foreign currency has appreciated or depreciated. If the currency moves down or gets depreciated the trader will be at a loss as he will get lesser units of home currency for a given amount of foreign currency, which he was holding. Similarly, an importer, who was contracted to make payment of a given amount in dollar at the end of a given period, may find that at the time of payment, the rupee dollar rate is higher. He would then have to pay more in rupees than what it would have been at the time when the contract was made. To protect tradersContinue reading