Requirements of a Good Forecast
A good forecast should satisfy the following criteria: Time frame: The first factor that can influence the choice of forecasting is the time frame of the forecasting situation. Forecasts are generally for points in time that may be a number of days, weeks, months, quarters, or years in the future. This length of time is called the time frame or time horizon. The length of the time frame is usually categorized as Immediate, Short term, Medium or Long term. In general, the length of the time frame will influence the choice of the forecasting technique. Typically a longer time frame makes accurate forecasting more difficult with qualitative forecasting techniques becoming more useful as the time frame lengthens. Pattern of the data: The pattern of the data must also be considered when choosing a forecasting model. The components present i.e. trend, cycle, seasonal or some combination of these will help determine Continue reading