Foreign Exchange Forecasting in Practice
Most of the approaches to foreign exchange rate determination tell only part of the story–like the several blindfolded men touching different parts of the elephant’s body–and other, more comprehensive explanations cannot, in practice, be used for precise forecasting. We do not yet have a way of bringing together all of the factors that help determine the exchange rate in a single comprehensive approach that will provide reliable short- to medium-term predictions. The exchange rate is a pervasive and complex mechanism, influencing and being influenced by many different forces, with the effects and the relative importance of the different influences continuously changing as conditions change. To the extent that trade flows are a force in the market, competitiveness is obviously important to the exchange rate, and the many factors affecting competitiveness must be considered. To the extent that the money market is a factor, the focus should be on short-term interest Continue reading