Until the early seventies, given the fixed rate regime, the foreign exchange market was perceived as a mechanism merely to put through merchant transactions. With the collapse of the Breton Woods agreement and the floatation of major currencies, the conduct of exchange rate policy posed a great challenge to central banks as currency fluctuations opened up tremendous opportunities for market players to trade in currency volatilities in a borderless market. The market in Indian, however, remained insulated as exchange rate controls inhibited capital movements and the banks were required to undertake cover operations and maintain a square position at all times. Slowly a demand began to build up that banks in India be permitted to trade in FOREX. In responseContinue reading
Economics Concepts
Flexible v/s fixed foreign exchange rates
An exchange rate is simply the price of one currency in terms of another. The process by which that price is determined depends on the particular exchange rate mechanism adopted. In a floating rate system, the exchange rate is determined directly by market forces, and is liable to fluctuate continually, as dictated by changing market conditions. In a ‘fixed’, or managed rate system, the authorities attempt to regulate the exchange rate at some level that they consider appropriate. Such a system often seems appealing to those who are troubled by the uncertainties of the present, highly volatile, floating rate environment. But the choice of exchange rate regime involves considerations that extend beyond the stability or otherwise of currency prices. ExchangeContinue reading
Official actions to influence foreign exchange rates
As in some other major industrial nations with floating exchange rate regimes, in the United States there is considerable scope for the play of market forces in determining the dollar exchange rate. But also, as in other countries,U.S. authorities do take steps at times to influence the exchange rate, via policy measures and direct intervention in the foreign exchange market to buy or sell foreign currencies. As noted above, in practice, all foreign exchange market intervention of the U.S. authorities is routinely sterilized–that is, the initial effect on U.S. bank reserves is offset by monetary policy action. No one questions that monetary policy measures can influence the exchange rate by affecting the relative attractiveness of a currency and expectations ofContinue reading
Determination of Exchange Rates
In simple terms, it is the interaction of supply and demand factors for two currencies in the market that determines the rate at which they trade. But what factors influence the many thousands of decisions made each day to buy or sell a currency? How do changes in supply and demand conditions explain the path of an exchange rate over the course of a day, a month, or a year? This complex issue has been extensively studied in economic literature and widely discussed among investors, officials, academicians, traders, and others. Still, there are no definitive answers. Views on exchange rate determination differ and have changed over time. No single approach provides a satisfactory explanation of exchange rate movements, particularlyContinue reading
Economics of the Foreign Exchange Market
In a floating exchange rate regime the price of the dollar, like any other market-determined price, depends on the relevant forces of supply and demand. But what are the relevant forces of supply and demand in the foreign exchange market? To try to answer this question, let us consider, for illustration, the factors that determine the relationship between the Australian dollar and the Japanese yen. The Japanese require dollars to pay for their imports of goods and services from Australia and to fund any investment they may wish to undertake in this country. Assume that they obtain these dollars on the foreign exchange market by supplying (selling) yen in return. So the Japanese demand for dollars (mirrored by the supplyContinue reading
Indian Perspective on Capital Account Convertibility
Just like in any other country, India’s foreign exchange transactions (transactions in dollars, pounds, or any other currency) are also broadly classified into two accounts, namely, the current account transactions and capital account transactions. A “current account transaction” could be exemplified where an Indian citizen needing foreign exchange of smaller amounts, say $3,000, for travelling abroad or for educational purposes, can obtain the same from a bank or a money-changer. On the other hand, a “capital account transaction” involves someone who wants to import plant and machinery or invest abroad, and needs a large amount of foreign exchange, say $1 million. But, the importer will have to first obtain the permission of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) only thenContinue reading