Factors That Affect Currency Values

To date, there is no exchange rate model that can predict future currency prices with 100% accuracy. In rapidly growing global foreign exchange markets, currency movements become harder to predict as more participants enter the market on a daily basis, bringing with them all their research opinions, emotions, and expectations about where currencies should be headed. Currency movements in the short term can be influenced by publicly available information like the release of the country’s gross domestic product data, the consumer price index, or employment data. The following publicly available information can have immediate impact on currency movements:

  • Local economic data releases and the anticipation of those releases.
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Calculation of Exchange Rates for Forward Contracts

When computing exchange rates for merchant transactions, the cover or the base rate at which the cover transaction can be undertaken in the Forex market is first computed, thereafter the profit margin as allowed by the Foreign Exchange Dealer’s Association of India (FEDAI) is taken and the rate rounded off as per FEDAI Rule. In case of forward contracts, the procedure is similar except that while computing the base rate, the forward margin has to be appropriately taken.

The forward margin is the extent to which the forward rate for a currency differs from its spot rate against a second currency.

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Scenario of Exchange Rates in India

India is following the direct rate in Forex markets, i.e. foreign currency is fixed and home currency is varying. When we go to a shop and ask for the price of a product he tells us only one rate for the product, because the trader is only selling the product to consumers. He is not buying from consumers. Whatever rate the seller tells is implied as his selling price for the product. Even though the consumer is buying a product, what he pays to the trader is the selling price of the trader. Foreign Exchange market is different from this market in the sense that the authorized dealer buys as well as sells the foreign currency.

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Internal Strategies for Managing Forex Transaction Risk

Transaction risk arises from executed contracts resulting in Forex payables or receivables in the future. The domestic currency value of these payables or receivables at current exchange rate and at future exchange rate is expected to be at variance, resulting in transaction risk. The forex transaction risk can be hedged using internal strategies. Internal strategies refer to strategies that are internal to the firm and its affiliates. These are “home’ arrangements. The counter party to the transactions may be involved. But third parties are never involved.

The different internal strategies used for managing forex transaction risk are:

  1. Risk Netting: This strategy involves matching forex receivables in a currency with forex payables in that currency.
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Currency Call Options and Put Options

Currency Call Options

A currency call option is a contract that gives the buyer the right to buy a foreign currency at a specified price during the prescribed period. Firms buy call options because they anticipate that the spot rate of the underlying currency will appreciate. Currency option trading can take place for hedging or speculation.

  • Hedging: Multinational companies with open positions in foreign currencies can utilize currency call options. For example, suppose that an American firm orders industrial equipment form a Indian company, and its payment is to be made in Indian Rupees upon delivery. An Indian rupee call option call option lacks in the rate at which the U.S
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Futures Contract

Future contracts allow the price risk to be separated from the reliability risk by removing the former from the set of factors giving rise to opportunism. The governance structure supplied by the exchange authority effectively eliminates reliability risk from future trading. The seller of futures contracts incurs a liability not to the buyer, but to the clearing house, and likewise the buyer acquires an asset from the clearing house. The clearing house in effect guarantees all transactions. In addition, the exchange rules, especially regarding its members’ contract, severely limit their ability to behave opportunistically. Organized exchanges greatly reduce default and reliability risk from future contracts.… Read the rest